"Crisis actively modulated" - Analysis of the RKI's crisis management during the coronavirus pandemic

"We are living in a time of multiple crises. The climate crisis, the war in Ukraine and the so-called migration crisis are just three examples at international level," says Dr Lorenzo Skade, one of the authors. There are also long-lasting crises at national level: housing crisis, economic crisis, energy crisis.

Lorenzo Skade, co-author of the study and post-doc at the European University Viadrina

However, crises are treated very differently. "When it comes to the climate crisis, we are very much in agreement that the consequences of inaction will be dramatic. Nevertheless, we currently perceive it as far less urgent than the looming economic recession," says Skade. "This cannot be explained solely by the change in the facts. Crises need a stakeholder to model them in order to increase the urgency among the population."

The most important stakeholder of the coronavirus crisis was the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). To understand how the institute modelled this crisis over two years, the Viadrina team led by Dr Lorenzo Skade analysed 45 hours of video footage from the RKI's press conferences, 371 of its situation reports and 645 external documents (mainly media reports) from the first year of the crisis.

The analysis showed that the RKI's communication very consciously emphasised the urgency of the crisis. "The RKI actively modulated the crisis. One example: When he came to the conclusion that the situation demanded it, RKI President Lothar Wieler tried to accelerate the crisis. He stood in front of the press every day and used very drastic words," Skade continues. "But to prevent this effect from wearing off, he also gave an all-clear signal at the right moments and then didn't communicate at all for weeks."

In total, the researchers identified three phases of crisis communication

• In the "early phase", the RKI recognised the potential threat but did not yet communicate any urgency. Instead, press conferences called for calm to be maintained.
• In the "escalation phase", the RKI increasingly communicated the seriousness of the situation. Information was translated into concrete key figures (for example the "R value" and daily case numbers) and benchmarks to make the extent of the crisis clear. The RKI emphasised the need for immediate action ("Flatten the Curve") and strict measures.
• In the "pause phase", the RKI reduced the urgency. The situation appeared to be under control, and time cues were translated in such a way that they signalled stability and control. The frequency of press conferences was reduced, but the public was still urged to maintain cooperation.

In addition, Skade's team identified three forms of urgency used by the RKI: So-called "windows of opportunity" were used to trigger rapid public and government responses when immediate action was considered necessary. "Inceptive urgency" was again used to maintain efforts even when immediate threats appeared to be contained. And "Expired Urgency" was used to indicate missed opportunities to act. It served as a warning and reminded the population of the importance of timely responses when needed.

Source: Lorenzo Skade, Elisa Lehrer, Yanis Hamdali, Jochen Koch (2024). The Temporality of Crisis and the Crisis of Temporality: On the Construction and Modulation of Urgency During Prolonged Crises. Journal of Management Studies.

Translated by Deepl and edited