Between fleeing and returning - KIU scholarship holder Tetyana Panchenko researches the lives of Ukrainian refugees in Germany

"I'll be back right after the war," says a 21-year-old Ukrainian woman in May 2022; Russia's war against her home country, from which she had fled to Germany, had been raging for three months. Almost two years later, the same woman says in an interview: "I have a desire to return. But the financial crisis, too many weapons, mentally traumatized people who will return from the war and among whom I be look for a future husband. I will never return to the Ukraine where I was happy… I will try to arrange my life her." These two statements and the development between them are just some of the many insights that political scientist Tetyana Panchenko has gained into the lives of Ukrainian refugees since spring 2022. She has conducted quantitative online surveys in five waves, in each of which up to 2,000 Ukrainians in Germany have taken part. At the same time, she executed two rounds of qualitative interviews to illustrate and deepen the figures and statistics with motivations, personal stories and backgrounds.

The statistical material from the online surveys illustrates developments and facets that are often overlooked when otherwise dealing with Ukrainian refugees. For example, Tetyana Panchenko can show that the proportion of people with high educational qualifications, good language skills, secure economic circumstances and highly qualified jobs among the refugees is far above the average in Ukraine. However, the longer the war lasts, the higher the proportion of people who belong to a socially vulnerable group among those who have fled to Germany.

The recovery of intellectual capital is becoming a crucial issue for Ukraine

Thoughts about a possible return to Ukraine have also changed over the course of the three years of war. While in May 2022 only just over half of those surveyed said they wanted to stay in Germany for at least two years, by the turn of the year 2023/24 this had risen to 84 per cent. In the later survey, only a quarter wanted to return for sure, compared to half of respondents in 2022. Three of the 19 people with whom Tetyana Panchenko conducted in-depth interviews have already returned. For two women, their husbands, who had remained in Ukraine, were the decisive factor. One single mother returned to Charkiw despite the ongoing war because her daughter had problems with the German school system and did not feel well integrated. "Many reasons always come together," says Tetyana Panchenko, explaining the complexity of her interviewees. The single mother also felt that she was more useful to her country being in Ukraine. "In the year since her return, she has sewn nets and special underwear for the army, painted cartridges that were sold at charity auctions and even thought about joining the army," Tetyana Panchenko says.

For the researcher, the question of return has become increasingly important in the course of her research. At the beginning of her project, which began with a two-year position at the ifo Institute in Munich, she was primarily interested in the reasons for fleeing Ukraine and integration in Germany, but she is now deepening her research into the question of who returns or can imagine returning and for what reasons. "How can Ukraine regain its intellectual capital - that is the crucial question for the post-war period," she is convinced. It is obvious that the longer the war lasts, the smaller the number of potential returnees becomes. But the "intellectual capital" can also be utilised in the diaspora for Ukraine, says Tetyana Panchenko. She has also recently noticed a rethinking in the Ukrainian government. Many refugees - 1.2 million Ukrainians have sought shelter in Germany alone since February 2022 - support Ukrainian families and friends with money, others work in refugee aid, organise demonstrations or otherwise ensure that attention for the situation in their home country is not diminished. They use their professional knowledge in a variety of ways: a psychologist offers online counselling for patients in Ukraine from Germany. An IT engineer has ideas for the realisation of joint projects between Ukraine and Germany. And a father of four, who is currently completing a dual training programme in logistics, is thinking about social projects for veterans, children of fallen soldiers and people from occupied territories.

"Others simply see their mission as maintaining a strong bond with Ukraine," says Tetyana Panchenko, describing another observation from her research. They speak Ukrainian, celebrate Ukrainian festivals and have their children follow Ukrainian lessons online - often in parallel to their German schooling. "Most of them keep their Ukrainian identity," she concludes, even if children are given as a reason not to return for the time being.

Leaving or staying? Also a complex question for Tetyana Panchenko personally

A consideration that Tetyana Panchenko also knows personally. For her KIU scholarship in Frankfurt (Oder), she travelled from an Austrian village where she lives with her husband and three children. The family - then still with two children - had already travelled to Germany in 2015. Her husband wanted to see the world and, as a highly qualified specialist, had the opportunity to work for the EU. Tetyana Panchenko came with him and has been teaching remotely at her university in Charkiw ever since. The family's firm plan to return to Ukraine after five years was cancelled first by the coronavirus pandemic and then by the war. "Objectively speaking, the likelihood of returning is low," says Tetyana Panchenko when asked whether she would like to live and work in Charkiw again. But if it were only up to her, she would like to go back to Ukraine. Tetyana Panchenko is no stranger to the difficult integration into the labour market, the rocky road of learning German, the great pressure of raising children in two languages and two worlds - all of which she is told by the interviewees in her project. "For the interviewees, talking to me was sometimes like therapy," she says, describing the special approach she found.

A look at the documented statements makes it clear how complex the issues of leaving or staying, integration and life prospects are. One participant in the surveys is quoted at the beginning of 2024 as saying: "These two years have been the most difficult for me in my life. But we have big plans and goals. Although it is very difficult, there is a desire to move on, there is a desire to stay here. We understand that for this we still need to make a lot of effort." Tetyana Panchenko will continue to follow the lives of the interviewees. She is currently endeavouring to secure further funding for her research.

Frauke Adesiyan